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While trade fears lift gold's safe-haven demand, easing tensions and risk appetite weigh on it.
Investors can take advantage of the quick turn in sentiment with the help of leveraged or inverse ETFs.
After peaking at $3500 per ounce last month, the gold price has been on a roller-coaster ride lately. While ongoing trade uncertainty has boosted gold's safe haven appeal, the return of risk appetite and signs of easing trade tensions are weighing on the yellow metal.
Factors Driving Up Gold Price
Gold has become extremely popular this year as investors seek to shield their portfolios from Trump tariffs disrupting trade relations and slowdown concerns. In the latest tariff escalation, Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the United States. He further signaled that he might announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals over the next two weeks, aimed at reducing regulatory hurdles for pharmaceutical manufacturing in the United States.
Gold is used to preserve wealth during financial and political uncertainty and usually does well when other asset classes struggle. Renewed conflict between India and Pakistan also provided a boost to haven flows into gold (read: Gold ETFs Surge on Safe-Haven Demand: Is a Pullback Coming?).
A weaker dollar and sustained central bank buying also buoyed gold’s rally this year. Though the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at this month’s meeting, an imminent rate cut could be in the cards in the next couple of months. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing its attractiveness over fixed-income investments such as bonds.
Risks
Trump has announced potential trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, aiming to convert his tariff policy into trade agreements. He also announced that the top U.S. officials would meet with their Chinese counterparts this weekend to discuss trade. The meeting would be the first major talks between the countries since Trump raised tariffs on imports from China to 145% last month.
Meanwhile, April jobs data show that the U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added better-than-expected 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, providing further assurance about the economy's health. This has injected strong optimism into the stock market, leading to a decline in gold prices.
While tariff-driven uncertainty and potential Fed dovishness support gold’s rally, the near-term volatility is likely to persist given the ongoing trade talks. Given the abrupt changes in gold price and an uncertain outlook, investors should place their bets on gold ETFs cautiously or take advantage of the quick turn in sentiment with the help of leveraged or inverse ETFs.
Physical Gold ETFs
These ETFs track the price of gold by holding physical bullion. Some of the most popular funds in this category are SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , SPDR Gold MiniShares TrustGLDM, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL - Free Report) and iShares Gold Trust MicroIAUM.
Gold Mining ETFs
These ETFs hold stocks of companies that mine gold. They tend to experience more gains or losses than gold in a rising or falling metal market. Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (GDX - Free Report) , VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ - Free Report) and iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING - Free Report) are the most popular with AUMs of $14.4 billion, $5.1 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively (read: Should You Buy Gold or Gold Miners Now?).
Leveraged Gold ETFs
Investors who are bullish on gold may consider these ETFs. These funds aim to return two times (2x) or three times (3x) the daily performance of gold or gold miners. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL - Free Report) and DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP - Free Report) offer 2x the return of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex and the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Optimum Yield Gold, respectively.
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT - Free Report) provides two times exposure to the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2x SharesJNUG provides 2x exposure to the daily performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETNGDXU seeks to deliver three times the performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.
Inverse Gold ETFs
Investors who are bearish on gold may want to consider a near-term short with these ETFs. These funds aim to return two to three times the inverse daily performance of gold or gold miners. ProShares UltraShort Gold ETFGLL offers two times the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex. DB Gold Short ETN DGZ creates a short position in the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Optimum Yield Gold while DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ - Free Report) offers a two times leveraged factor on the inverse performance in the same index (see: all the Inverse Commodity ETFs here).
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2x Shares (DUST - Free Report) provides two times inverse exposure to the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bearl 2x Shares (JDST - Free Report) provides 2x inverse exposure to the daily performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Inverse ETNGDXD seeks to deliver three times inverse performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.
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How to Play the Gold Rush With ETFs
Key Takeaways
After peaking at $3500 per ounce last month, the gold price has been on a roller-coaster ride lately. While ongoing trade uncertainty has boosted gold's safe haven appeal, the return of risk appetite and signs of easing trade tensions are weighing on the yellow metal.
Factors Driving Up Gold Price
Gold has become extremely popular this year as investors seek to shield their portfolios from Trump tariffs disrupting trade relations and slowdown concerns. In the latest tariff escalation, Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the United States. He further signaled that he might announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals over the next two weeks, aimed at reducing regulatory hurdles for pharmaceutical manufacturing in the United States.
Gold is used to preserve wealth during financial and political uncertainty and usually does well when other asset classes struggle. Renewed conflict between India and Pakistan also provided a boost to haven flows into gold (read: Gold ETFs Surge on Safe-Haven Demand: Is a Pullback Coming?).
A weaker dollar and sustained central bank buying also buoyed gold’s rally this year. Though the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at this month’s meeting, an imminent rate cut could be in the cards in the next couple of months. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing its attractiveness over fixed-income investments such as bonds.
Risks
Trump has announced potential trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, aiming to convert his tariff policy into trade agreements. He also announced that the top U.S. officials would meet with their Chinese counterparts this weekend to discuss trade. The meeting would be the first major talks between the countries since Trump raised tariffs on imports from China to 145% last month.
Meanwhile, April jobs data show that the U.S. labor market remained resilient amid the tariff chaos. The economy added better-than-expected 177,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, providing further assurance about the economy's health. This has injected strong optimism into the stock market, leading to a decline in gold prices.
While tariff-driven uncertainty and potential Fed dovishness support gold’s rally, the near-term volatility is likely to persist given the ongoing trade talks. Given the abrupt changes in gold price and an uncertain outlook, investors should place their bets on gold ETFs cautiously or take advantage of the quick turn in sentiment with the help of leveraged or inverse ETFs.
Physical Gold ETFs
These ETFs track the price of gold by holding physical bullion. Some of the most popular funds in this category are SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD - Free Report) , iShares Gold Trust (IAU - Free Report) , SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust GLDM, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL - Free Report) and iShares Gold Trust Micro IAUM.
Gold Mining ETFs
These ETFs hold stocks of companies that mine gold. They tend to experience more gains or losses than gold in a rising or falling metal market. Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (GDX - Free Report) , VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ - Free Report) and iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING - Free Report) are the most popular with AUMs of $14.4 billion, $5.1 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively (read: Should You Buy Gold or Gold Miners Now?).
Leveraged Gold ETFs
Investors who are bullish on gold may consider these ETFs. These funds aim to return two times (2x) or three times (3x) the daily performance of gold or gold miners. ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL - Free Report) and DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP - Free Report) offer 2x the return of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex and the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Optimum Yield Gold, respectively.
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT - Free Report) provides two times exposure to the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares JNUG provides 2x exposure to the daily performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN GDXU seeks to deliver three times the performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.
Inverse Gold ETFs
Investors who are bearish on gold may want to consider a near-term short with these ETFs. These funds aim to return two to three times the inverse daily performance of gold or gold miners. ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF GLL offers two times the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg Gold Subindex. DB Gold Short ETN DGZ creates a short position in the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Optimum Yield Gold while DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ - Free Report) offers a two times leveraged factor on the inverse performance in the same index (see: all the Inverse Commodity ETFs here).
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2x Shares (DUST - Free Report) provides two times inverse exposure to the daily performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bearl 2x Shares (JDST - Free Report) provides 2x inverse exposure to the daily performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Inverse ETN GDXD seeks to deliver three times inverse performance of the S-Network MicroSectors Gold Miners Index.